Sunday, June 26, 2022

EURUSD Struggles To Hold Amid ECB Speech And EUAM Return To Kyiv
5 mins well spent

EURUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the Market has rebounded from the Horizontal Support area of the Pattern.

Where is EURUSD Today

The EURUSD currency pair is struggling to stay above support levels following the recent speech by ECB Vice President Guindos. Looking at each of the time frames, it is evident that this major pair is currently entering bearish market conditions as a result of the recontinuation of the EUAM mission in Ukraine.

EURUSD H1 Time Frame Analysis Market is moving in an Ascending channel and the Market has Fallen from the higher high area of the channel

EURUSD is moving in an Ascending channel and the Market has Fallen from the higher high area of the channel.

We can see that every now and then, the pair seems to recover slightly before falling back under hot waters. Just today, we have seen the EURUSD pair fall as low as 1.056 and highs of 1.059. However, it has since slightly dropped again and is now teasing around the 1.057 region. At the moment, it seems as though this pair may continue to fall or struggle to hold at support. It is very unlikely that this pair will begin an upward trend into bullish markets.

EURUSD H4 Time Frame Analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has Fallen from the Lower high area of the channel 1

EURUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has Fallen from the Lower high area of the channel.

ECB Guindos Speech

ECB’s Vice President, Luis de Guindos attended the 20th annual symposium where he held a speech discussing the changes that occurred in the banking sector over the last two years as a result of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This was the first time Guindos attended the symposium in about two years. Guindos discusses the implementation of new designs and frameworks to enhance the banking sector.

EURUSD Daily Time Frame Analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has rebounded from the lower low area of the Channel 1

EURUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has rebounded from the lower low area of the Channel.

He further admits how these last two years have been extremely hard as the ECB is a central bank that has to take into account quite a few states instead of just one. This was especially difficult to do with the pandemic just looming around the corner and the war being a very prominent factor in the EU.

ECB Vice president Luis De Guindos said Inflation will hit 3.4 3.5 in November month but is temporary as a technical outlook.

In his speech, Guindos reveals, “Since the Russian invasion, financial stability concerns have centered on the economic and inflationary impacts of the current macro-financial environment through higher commodity and energy prices, trade disruptions, and weaker confidence. Let me touch upon some components of the euro area financial system in turn. The banking sector is facing new headwinds from the war. Higher energy and commodity prices, combined with potential energy supply disruptions, could lead to rising credit risks in the corporate sector, especially in energy-intensive sectors. This has already led analysts to cut bank profitability forecasts for 2022, due to increased provisioning expectations. An upward shift in interest rate expectations may affect banks’ financial positions in two different ways. On the one hand, bank earnings are expected to benefit from higher rates in the short-term; on the other, their net worth is vulnerable to rate increases in the medium-term. The economic value of banks with a high share of fixed-rate assets may drop as assets lose more value than liabilities. That said, overall interest rate risk exposures are moderate, on aggregate, and banks have actively managed them to prepare for increasing interest rates.”

EUAM Return To Kyiv

EURUSD Weekly Time Frame Analysis Market is moving in the Descending triangle pattern and The market has rebounded from the horizontal Support area of the Pattern

EURUSD is moving in the Descending triangle pattern and The market has rebounded from the horizontal Support area of the Pattern.

The EU Advisory Mission Ukraine (EUAM) is returning to Ukraine early on Thursday after it had to evacuate just a few months ago at the end of February due to the invasion of Russia. The EUAM was responsible for bringing law and order to Ukraine and helping the country maintain security and safety. However, as it enters Ukraine for the second time, its responsibilities have slightly changed. The EUAM is now responsible for bringing justice against various international crimes and atrocities. These are mainly against the war crimes that Russia committed in Ukraine. In order to successfully perform this mission, a core team of 15 members of the EUAM have been redeployed and are directly working with the Ukrainian authorities to bring justice for the crimes committed against humanity.

US asks the German Government to take action against Russia if Russia invades Ukraine 1

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, states, “I am glad to announce the redeployment of the European Union Advisory Mission back to Ukraine. In addition to its other tasks, the mission will now support the critical work of the Ukrainian General Prosecutor to facilitate the investigation and prosecution of any international crimes committed in the context of Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine. Those responsible for atrocities and war crimes, and their accomplices, will be held to account in accordance with international law.” Analysts at reliefweb also reveal, “In the context of the ongoing Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Mission has developed new work strands in support of Ukrainian authorities, in addition to its advisory activities under the original mandate. This includes deploying teams to the Ukrainian side of border crossing points with Poland, Slovakia, and Romania to facilitate to flow of people and goods across the border. It also includes supporting Ukrainian authorities, in particular to the Prosecutor General and Law Enforcement Agencies, in investigating and prosecuting international crimes. The Mission is also donating emergency equipment to help its partners.”

EU Membership Candidates

It may seem quite surprising but you can’t just become a member of the EU out of the blue. You have to apply for the EU membership and if all 28 member states of the EU accept your application, only then will you officially become part of the EU. There are plenty of benefits of being an EU state which is why many European countries are looking to get this rare title. Being a part of the EU gives you additional security against threats on both a national and international level. This is why the Moldovan President has also recently pleaded with the EU member states to grant it EU membership as well. It is also important to note that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also affected Moldova as it is a neighboring country to the war zone.

EU Summit

During her speech, President Sandu states, “We are aware that political decisions at the EU level have to be made. We are also aware that these are not easy decisions. But granting Moldova candidate status is the right decision. We belong in the European Union.” Analysts with the Schengenvisa also reveal, “The population in Moldova increased by four per cent within two weeks, as almost half a million Ukrainians crossed the border, with some 90,000 of those remaining in Moldova. Of this, half of the newcomers are children, which takes the total number of children in Moldova to ten per cent.”


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