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Mon, Apr 15, 2024

XAUUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel.

The US is all set to release their Core CPI data and this is a key data point for the month of march as it will help the Feds determine the upcoming rate hikes. They are currently deciding on whether to have a hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. This will be determined according to the CPI data which is going to be released soon. Moreover, the recent employment data and Non-Farm Payrolls data came back positive which revealed that the economy is finally growing and the dollar is becoming more stronger against other currencies.

US Non-Farm Payrolls Growth

During the month of February in the United States, the rate of hiring came in higher than what was anticipated by the market, with robust growth occurring in both the private and public sectors. The non-farm payrolls increased by 311,000, as reported by the United States Department of Labor. A total of 34,000 fewer people were added to the payroll during the prior two months than originally estimated.

USDJPY M15 TF analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel

USDJPY is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel.

On the other hand, average hourly wages increased by 0.24% month-over-month, while the duration of the typical work week decreased by a tenth of an hour to 34.5. The most significant increase in employment was seen in the leisure and hospitality industry, which was up by 105,000.

EURUSD H4 TF analysis Market has broken the Descending channel in Upside

EURUSD has broken the Descending channel in Upside.

Some market commentary noted that earnings in this area of the economy were typically low, despite the fact that the positions were beginning to be filled. On the other side, there was a decrease of 4,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector. There was a gain of 265,000 jobs in the private sector and 46,000 jobs in the public sector. The rate of unemployment, which is obtained from a separate poll than the one that creates the statistics for non-farm payrolls, also came in lower than anticipated. This was due to the fact that the survey did not include as many people.

US NFP

In comparison to the previous month, it increased by two tenths of a percentage point, coming in at 3.6%. And the percentage of people actively participating in the work force increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 62.5%. The jump in the unemployment rate can be attributed to the fact that even while the civilian labor force increased by 419,000 persons over the previous month, there were only 177,000 more people employed.

Feds Vice Chairman Speech

Vice Chairman of the Federal Board of Revenue Lael Brainard recently gave a speech where she discussed how the committee is planning on bringing inflation down over the course of the next few months. She reveals, “Despite constrained supply, wages do not appear to be driving inflation in a 1970s-style wage–price spiral. It is true that wages have grown faster than the pace consistent with 2 percent inflation and productivity growth. It is also true that wages have grown slower than inflation over the past two years, and that aggregate real wages have fallen.”

GBPUSD H4 TF analysis Market has broken the Descending channel in Upside.

GBPUSD has broken the Descending channel in Upside.

“It appears that workers in lower-wage sectors who saw high pandemic layoffs initially and benefited from job switching subsequently as businesses scrambled to hire have seen wage gains in real terms. However, in the aggregate, the gains among lower-wage workers were more than offset by real wage declines among middle- and higher-wage workers in the context of a broader compression in the real wage distribution, as David Autor points out.10 Overall, the labor share of income has declined over the past two years and appears to be at or below pre-pandemic levels, while corporate profits as a share of GDP remain near postwar highs.”

FED Speech

“Inflation has declined in recent months from very high levels. With the consumer price index and producer price index now available, total PCE inflation in December is likely to have run at around a 2.3 percent annualized pace on a 3- and 6-month basis, as compared with 5.1 percent on a 12-month basis. This deceleration reflects an easing in war-related energy shocks as well as in core goods inflation: Energy and core goods each subtracted nearly three-fourths of 1 percentage point from 3-month annualized total PCE inflation. The declines in energy and core goods are a reversal of previous large increases and are expected to moderate.”

US Employment Boom

In February, companies in the United States added another 311,000 jobs, bringing the total number of open positions to 3.61 million, while the unemployment rate remained close to a 50-year low of 3.6%. Following many months of slowing employment creation, the amount was much lower than the revised 504,000 new positions that were stated to have been added in January by the labor department. Nonetheless, it was far larger than the 220,000 that analysts had been anticipating, and it comes at a time when inflation has persistently stayed high.

AUDUSD H4 TF analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel

AUDUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel.

The Federal Reserve has given indications that it would keep up the dramatic hikes in interest rates that it has been implementing as part of its campaign to slow the economy and bring down prices. Employment in the retail sector increased by 50,000, while government employment increased by 46,000. The highest gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 105,000 new posts. The rate of wage growth slowed to its lowest point since February 2022, with a 0.2% gain over the course of the month.

US ADP employment data

The robust expansion seen in February was fueled in part by individuals who returned to the labor market. The labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of the US population that is either working or actively looking for work, increased to 62.5%, marking its highest level since the early stages of the pandemic.This rate is also not too far off from the average that existed before the pandemic, which was 63.5%. According to a report that was released by the Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of persons applying for unemployment insurance rose by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 211,000 in the previous They continue to be much lower than 2019’s pre-pandemic average of 220,000.


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