AUD: Australia’s March Unemployment Rate: 3.8% vs. Expected 3.9%
The Australian Unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in march month from 3.7% printed in the February month and 3.9% is expected. Employment change came at -6.6K in March month versus 7.2K expected and 116.5K printed in the last month. The economists said Still Job Market is higher than pre-pandemic levels, just 0.40% only decreased. The Australian Dollar moved higher against counter pairs after the data printed.
AUDUSD has broken box pattern in downside
In March, Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 3.8%, slightly surpassing the anticipated 3.9% and marking a rise from the previous 3.7%, as revealed by official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday.
The Australian Employment Change saw a notable shift, dropping to -6.6K in March from 116.5K in February, differing significantly from the expected 7.2K.
During the same period, Australia’s participation rate decreased to 66.6% from February’s 66.7%. However, Full-Time Employment surged by 27.9K, reaching 9,853,800 individuals, a notable increase from the previous reading of 79.4K. In contrast, Part-Time Employment declined by 6.6K to 4,406,100 individuals in March, down from the previous 117.6K and falling short of the market consensus of a 7.2K rise.
Bjorn Jarvis, the head of labour statistics at ABS, highlighted key trends, stating, With employment decreasing by approximately 7,000 individuals and the number of unemployed increasing by 21,000, the unemployment rate escalated to 3.8%.
He further commented, The labor market retained its relative tightness in March, with both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate hovering close to their record highs in November 2023. Despite a 0.4 percentage point decline since then, they remain substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels.
AUD: Despite Unemployment Increase, Jobs Market Remains ‘Incredibly Tight’
The Australian Unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in march month from 3.7% printed in the February month and 3.9% is expected. Employment change came at -6.6K in March month versus 7.2K expected and 116.5K printed in the last month. The economists said Still Job Market is higher than pre-pandemic levels, just 0.40% only decreased. The Australian Dollar moved higher against counter pairs after the data printed.
AUDCAD is moving in Ascending channel and market has reached higher low area of the channel
In March, Australia’s headline unemployment rate saw a slight uptick to 3.8%, a result of a decrease of 7,000 individuals in employment coupled with a rise of 21,000 individuals in unemployment. This translated to a 0.1 percentage point increase from February’s rate of 3.7%.
Despite this marginal shift, a more stable measure of unemployment, known as the ‘trend’ unemployment rate, remained unchanged at 3.9% for the fifth consecutive month. This suggests underlying resilience within the economy.
Despite a minor setback in employment, Australia’s labor market remains remarkably tight, noted Callam Pickering, APAC senior economist at Indeed, underlining the overall strength of the job market.
Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its latest quarterly Bulletin released alongside the March unemployment figures, delved into its assessment of full employment. The report highlighted that while labor market conditions had eased slightly since late 2022, they still remained tight compared to historical norms.
ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman observed that the labor market seemed to be gradually softening in March, yet it might still be operating slightly above the RBA’s previous forecasts. This could imply a need for a faster increase in unemployment to align with the RBA’s inflation targets.
Despite these nuanced shifts, the tight labor market, coupled with persistent inflation and cost-of-living pressures, continues to pose challenges for businesses. Dr. Corbin Barry, a Sydney-based dentist, shared his struggles in recruiting and retaining support staff amid economic uncertainties. Dr. Barry highlighted the reluctance of patients to seek dental treatment amidst the current cost-of-living crisis, impacting the footfall in his clinic. Moreover, ensuring sufficient working hours and career progression for his staff remains a concern amidst the broader economic landscape dominated by inflationary pressures.
AUD: March Sees Australia’s Unemployment Hit 3.8% Amid Job Losses
The Australian Unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in march month from 3.7% printed in the February month and 3.9% is expected. Employment change came at -6.6K in March month versus 7.2K expected and 116.5K printed in the last month. The economists said Still Job Market is higher than pre-pandemic levels, just 0.40% only decreased. The Australian Dollar moved higher against counter pairs after the data printed.
AUDCHF is moving in Uptrend line and market has reached higher low area of the pattern
Last month, Australia’s economy experienced a decline of 6,600 jobs as businesses responded to weakened demand by reducing their workforce. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that the unemployment rate for March reached 3.8%, up from February’s 3.7%.
Despite the loss of jobs, there was an addition of 27,900 full-time positions in March, although this was offset by a reduction of 34,500 part-time roles. This net decrease of 6,600 jobs contrasts sharply with the anticipated gain of 10,000 positions projected by economists, highlighting the volatile nature of recent job market trends, including the unexpected surge of 116,500 jobs in February.
Alongside the rise in unemployment, the participation rate also experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, settling at 66.6%, while the total hours worked increased by 1 million to 1.93 billion.
Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, remarked on the relative tightness of the labor market, stating, The labour market remained relatively tight in March, with an employment-to-population ratio and participation rate still close to their record highs in November 2023.
Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Treasury had forecasted a modest increase in the unemployment rate due to the impact of 13 official interest rate hikes, expecting the rate to reach approximately 4.3% by June.
Australia’s labor market has shown resilience since rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic, with unemployment reaching a low of 3.4% in November 2022, the lowest since the 1970s.
AUDUSD is moving in Symmetrical Triangle and market has fallen from the lower high area of the pattern
Despite the employment data, expectations for significant changes in monetary policy remained minimal, with investors largely unfazed. The Australian dollar hovered above 64.3 US cents, and stocks maintained most of their gains for the day.
Across various states, most major markets witnessed a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. New South Wales saw an increase from 3.6% to 3.8%, while Queensland’s and Victoria’s rates rose from 3.9% to 4.1%. Conversely, Tasmania showed improvement, with its unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% from 4.5%.
The national seasonally adjusted underemployment rate decreased to 6.5%, remaining 2.3 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic levels in March 2020.
Looking ahead, economists suggest that while the labor market remains tight, concerns about excess demand persist, influencing ongoing discussions around monetary policy adjustments. The RBA’s monthly bulletin emphasized the complexities of determining full employment, cautioning against relying solely on historical indicators to assess current labor market dynamics.
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