Tue, Feb 20, 2024

US CPI for November Shows Slight Decline

In November, the United States’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) exhibited a minor decrease, falling from October’s 3.2% to 3.1%. This slight decline in inflation figures has raised uncertainties regarding the forthcoming Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision.

Core CPI Remains Steady at 4.0%

Core CPI, an inflation measure that excludes food and energy prices, sustained its stability at 4.0%. This signifies a consistent trend in underlying inflation, unaffected by the fluctuations in volatile sectors.

Mixed Monthly and Yearly Data

USDCADH4

USDCAD is moving in the Descending channel, market already rose from 1.3550-1.3600 area after the US CPI Data released today. Market may have chances to move to the resistance area of 1.3635 is possible.

The monthly CPI experienced a 0.1% increase, aligning with expectations and marking a modest rise compared to the previous month’s reading, which was flat at 0.0%. Conversely, core CPI, on a monthly basis, demonstrated a 0.3% increase, surpassing expectations and surpassing the 0.2% figure from October.

Fed’s Rate Decision in Question

Fed's Rate Decision in Question

The latest inflation data is unlikely to have a significant impact on market expectations concerning the Federal Reserve’s impending monetary policy decisions. Market participants anticipate the FED to maintain its benchmark fed funds rate within the established range of 5.25% to 5.5% during its next two policy meetings.

Market Reaction

Following the release of the data, U.S. stock index futures experienced a modest increase of 0.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by one basis point, settling at 4.22%. These market reactions indicate that investors are cautiously interpreting the CPI data.

Anticipation Builds for Fed’s Rate Hike Decision

Anticipation Builds for Fed's Rate Hike Decision

Global investors are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, scheduled for announcement on December 13. Both this decision and the recently published CPI data are anticipated to play pivotal roles in shaping the global economic outlook for 2024.

Caution on Market Expectations

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s leading financial advisory and asset management firms, has cautioned against overconfidence in market expectations. He highlights that inflation remains persistent, suggesting that the Fed may not rush into policy changes, such as rate cuts. Green’s statement underscores the importance of a prudent approach to interpreting market signals.

Annual Inflation at Five-Month Low

USDCADDaily

The annual inflation rate in the United States declined to 3.1% in November 2023, marking the lowest level in five months. This reduction from October’s 3.2% aligns with market forecasts. However, monthly consumer prices showed a 0.1% increase, exceeding expectations. This nuanced shift in inflation trends underscores the need for a comprehensive analysis that considers both short-term and long-term factors.

Core Inflation Trends

Core consumer price inflation

Core consumer price inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remained at 4% annually, consistent with market expectations. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.3% in November, following a 0.2% increase in October. This stable core inflation rate demonstrates underlying price pressures that warrant attention.

Insights into CPI Data

USDCADWeekly

The Consumer Price Index’s annual measurement reflected a 3.1% inflation rate for November, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained steady at 4% annually, as forecasted. Understanding the nuances of these inflation indicators is crucial for evaluating the broader economic landscape.

Factors Affecting CPI

The CPI data unveiled a continued rise in the shelter index, compensating for a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index witnessed a 2.3% decrease over the month, primarily attributed to a 6.0% drop in the gasoline index. These dynamics highlight the diverse factors that influence overall inflation and the importance of dissecting the data to grasp the intricacies of price movements.


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