Gold: NFP data forecast
Gold is moving in an Uptrend line and the support and resistance areas.
NFP data this week is expected to add 25k Jobs from June month as 875k is expected in July data.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall by 5.7% from 5.9%.
Gold prices face tough resistance of 1834$ as the Past week touched and declines to support of 1800$ as the previous level.
This month August 27-28 Jackson Hole symposium is conducted; FED commentary makes the market volatile this month-end.
Gold Prices are settled down in ranging market from 1835$ to 1790$in July month.
Jackson Hole symposium meeting will decide the Direction of Gold to up or down based on action taken by FED.
US Dollar: FED Waller Hawkish comment on Tapering of MBS first
USDCAD bounces back from the support zone and retest zone of ascending triangle, now if market reverse, it will be like head and shoulder pattern – wait for confirmation.
FED voting members give the Suggestion for tapering of Mortgage-backed securities first and then to treasuries assets. Other FOMC committee members oppose this view.
And FED Powell is adamant in an accommodative stance because inflation targets only achieve our goals, and Now FED is focused on the Labor market.
This week NFP data expected to 880k in the July monthly report, and the Unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.9%.
US Dollar now selling pressure as yesterday ISM Manufacturing index came at 59.5 from 60.6 as Below the estimates of 60.9.
And additional domestic data in August month will print the same type of lesser numbers than US Dollar has a nasty blow for Downside.
EURO: Producer Price Index
EURUSD Correction going on after achieving the descending triangle target in the 1-hour timeframe chart..
EURAUD is moving in an Ascending channel in 4 hour timeframe.
Eurozone Producer price index rose to 1.4% in June and 10.2% from a year earlier.
EURUSD now tilted towards the resistance of 1.19 as reached Past week.
Last day Domestic data of US make disappointments to US Dollar picked up, reversely Euro had moved up last day.
Now Vaccinations are smooth progress in the EU, and the Delta variant is spread across the EU.
Factory orders are line up with expectations, and the Manufacturing zone in the Eurozone slower outlook.
Spain economy report
Spanish economy minister Nadia Calvino said Spain had faced a severe economic dropdown to 11% in 2020 and see the biggest expansion in the next year.
GDP will grow to 6.5% in 2021 and 7% in 2022, in line with expectations.
In 2020 Spain recover its pandemic situation to the medium term, and 2023 is the return path before the crisis happened.
We will consider the hike of minimum wage after the Labor market condition in summer.
And workers are added to the social security system; this summer, we see the Jobs levels as similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Finance minister Maria Jesus Montero said Government is hoping to Unemployment rate drawdown to 8.4% in 2021 and 5% in 2022.
EURUSD goes for Positive after Spain Finance minister comments.
UK POUND: Delta Variant
GBPJPY is falling after retesting the broken level and the lower high zone of the downtrend line
GBPUSD has recently broken the bottom of the uptrend line and it’s forming a descending triangle in the 1 hour chart.
GBPUSD cable drives towards the direction of 1.40 level as the previous past week reached resistance.
UK Pound is benefitted from lesser covid-19 infections as 20k from 50k seen as a drop in the UK.
Vaccination of 1st dosage is completed with 70% of UK Population.
And Lingering issues of Post Brexit deal between the UK and EU are now made softer after the EU gets compensated with the UK.
UK Domestic data shows less improvement in the manufacturing and services PMI sectors.
Canadian Dollar: Oil Prices plunges
CADJPY starts to fall in a descending channel breaking the minor range in the 4-hour timeframe chart.
AUDCAD is bouncing back from the strong support zone – fake breakout occurs comparing with recent support.
Canadian Dollar faces losses in recent days as Oil prices plunging day by day. The reason behind this is PMI data of the US and China is downbeat numbers printed.
Lower PMI numbers show consumption of Oil is lower than Production.
So, now the supply of Oil increases with Demand slower in the US and China.
China put tough lockdown in more areas to control covid-19, and it will impact Oil Prices in the near term.
Once China recovered from the Delta variant, Oil Prices once again surges in the market.
USDCAD hits 1.25 level last day after Oil Prices plunges.
Japanese Yen: Covid-19 severe in Japan
EURJPY is falling in a descending channel and has broken the bottom of the range.
Japanese finance minister Taro Aso said the Japanese Government is yet to consider the extra budget for the economy.
The situation of covid-19 is unpredictable for Japan Government, and the only solution is Rapid Vaccination to people to solve the spread of Delta variant and releasing lockdown measures.
And Hospital beds remain severe as cases stood higher after the Olympic game started.
Japan Fiscal situation is the worst case ever seen, but it gets improved if Vaccination gets severe to people.
Australian Dollar:RBA meeting outcome
AUDUSD is still ranging and consolidating in a specific price levels.
Reserve Bank of Australia Policy decision made today left interest rates unchanged at 0.10% and announced good news as Tapering assets of weekly asset purchases from A$5 billion to A$4 billion per week.
This news makes appreciated AUDUSD around 0.50% to 0.74 level.
More Lockdowns in Australia made more backdrop of Domestic data.
China is the second-largest trading partner with Australia, announced more lockdowns to control the spread of Delta Variant in China.
Due to these scenarios export of Iron ore will be impacted for Australia if China Condition worsens.
More Lockdown measures from Australia makes investors for the Dovish stance of RBA. Now tapering assets is favourable for the Australian Dollar to Appreciate.
Australian Economic Outlook is expected to grow at 4% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.
Coming Third-quarter GDP expected to lesser number than Previous one due to more lockdowns imposed in Australia.
New Zealand Dollar: Job report in the second quarter
GBPNZD is moving between the ascending channel range.
New Zealand Dollar pushed higher as positive data expected from Wednesday Second quarter Job report.
RBA decision Favour Kiwi to some extent as Tapering assets.
China manufacturing PMI came in lesser than expectations, services PMI also crossed wires. Due to this, New Zealand is fear of China facing slower GDP Growth in the second quarter.
The unemployment rate will fell to 4.5% from 4.7% in the first quarter. Rosy outlook of Unemployment expected reading will make help RBNZ decided to hike rates soon.
Swiss Franc: Swiss PMI data
EURCHF has broken the higher low of uptrend line and it is trying to break the horizontal support zone without much retracements. However In another long term view, EURCHF is standing now at the 61.8% retracement level. If the price bounces back from this zone, it will move up more if it continues to fall, it should have to break the next support areas S1, S2.
USDCHF Dropped to the 90.500 level last day as the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 59.5 versus 60.9 forecasts, weaker reading printed last day.
Reasons for lower reading is labour and transport inefficient is reported.
And Switzerland Manufacturing PMI rose to 71.1 in July from 66.7 in June and retails sales edged higher as 0.1% in June every year, with a 2.8% basis jump in May.
Now Delta variant shows more panic around the Globe, and the Swiss Franc remains a more conservative and safe currency around the investor’s view.
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