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Tue, Jun 18, 2024

US Consumer Confidence to Determine Dollar Value in the Markets
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USDJPY is moving in the Descending channel and the market has fallen from the lower high area of the channel.

The US Consumer Confidence is an important data set to analyze when it comes to understanding the dollar value in the market. If the report comes back positive, the dollar markets may see some bullish activity. Here is all you need to keep in mind:

US Retail Sales

Retail sales in the United States dipped modestly in February, perhaps as a result of the previous month’s outsized surge, but the underlying trend remained robust, indicating that the economy expanded in the first quarter despite rising borrowing rates. The data that was released by the Department of Commerce on Wednesday, which encouraged analysts to increase their projections for the rise of the gross domestic product for this quarter. The data about inflation were a little bit promising.

XAUUSD Weekly TF analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel 3

XAUUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel.

The decrease in producer prices that occurred last month contributed to the year-over-year increase being the smallest it has been in nearly two years. The majority of retail sales are composed of products, and these figures do not account for inflation. Analysts cited difficulties in correcting the statistics for swings in spending habits at the end and beginning of the year as one of the causes that had overstated January’s spike in retail sales. Higher prices were also cited as one of the contributing factors. The purchase of motor vehicles was the primary factor in the decrease in retail sales that occurred in February.

USD Dollar index H4 TF analysis Market is moving in the Descending channel and the market has fallen from the lower high area of the channel

USD Dollar index is moving in the Descending channel and the market has fallen from the lower high area of the channel.

The revenues at auto dealers dropped 1.8% in February after having increased 7.1% in January. The decline in sales at furniture stores was 2.5%, while the decline in sales at clothes retailers was 0.8%. The only services-related sector included in the report on retail sales, food services and drinking establishments saw their receipts decrease by 2.2%. On the other hand, receipts at stores that sell electronics and appliances rose 0.3%, while sales at online retailers increased by 1.6%.

US Retails sales

A tight labor market, which is driving stronger pay growth, is providing support for consumer spending as a result. In January, there were 1.9 job vacancies available for every individual who was jobless. Despite the pandemic brought on by COVID-19, consumers have still accumulated a significant amount of savings. The financial markets viewed a 50/50 chance of a quarter-point rate hike or pause at the Fed’s policy meeting that will take place the following Tuesday and Wednesday. Since March of this year, the Federal Reserve has moved its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current range of 4.50%-4.75%, representing a 450-point increase in basis points.

Biden on US Strategy

US President Joe Biden recently released a letter on the US strategy to prevent conflict and promote stability. Biden reveals, “In our interconnected world, instability anywhere can have global repercussions. The security and prosperity of Americans here at home are directly connected to the security and economic health of people everywhere. Strife spills across borders. Violence and deprivation are driving a record number of people from their homes.”

EURUSD H4 TF analysis Market has broken the Box pattern and rebounded from the retest area of the Box pattern.

EURUSD has broken the Box pattern and rebounded from the retest area of the Box pattern.

“The horrors of war unfolding in Ukraine, where Russian forces are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, as well as in Yemen and Syria, remind us every day of the terrible human costs of conflict. And, as we have all experienced these past few years living through the COVID-19 pandemic and the accelerating impacts of the climate crisis, no nation can wall itself off from the shared challenges that are shaping our world.”

“These plans represent a meaningful, long-term commitment by the United States to building the political and economic resilience of partner societies by making strategic investments in prevention to mitigate the underlying vulnerabilities that can lead to conflict and violence and are critical to achieving lasting peace. The plans are a statement of our values, deeply rooted in America’s commitment to upholding human rights and strengthening democracy and good governance, and amplify the unsung work of prevention and capacity building, which often reflects the dedication of decades of dialogue and diplomacy.”

US Joe Biden plan

“And critically, they are built around local partnerships, elevating diverse voices, including the voices of women and young people, in recognition of the fact that those who are the closest to the challenges know best what is needed to bring about peace and progress. We stand at an inflection point in history—where the choices we make today will determine the shape of the world for generations to come. By bringing together long-term planning, locally-owned solutions, and vital American leadership now, I believe we will create a more peaceful and prosperous future for everyone.”

US-Iran Tensions

A tiny suicide drone flew low over the base’s perimeter fencing and crashed into a maintenance building where United States military personnel and private contractors were working. It did not have a firing mechanism but rather simply detonated upon impact. There was one American contractor who was murdered, as well as five American servicemen and another contractor who were injured. One service member was able to return to duty, while the other wounded service member was evacuated to receive medical care outside of Syria.

GBPUSD H4 TF analysis Market has broken the Descending channel in Upside. 1

GBPUSD has broken the Descending channel in Upside.

It is common practice to use contractors for assistance with maintenance and logistical support. Officials in the United States have placed the blame for the attack on Iran, citing remnants of the drone, multiple intelligence threat streams, and the fact that the attack was extremely similar to others that militants have carried out in the past. In an act of retaliation, United States F-15 fighter jets based at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar carried out airstrikes near Deir el-Zour. The strikes were directed at Iran-backed militias who are believed to be responsible for the attack.

AUDUSD H4 TF analysis Market has broken the Descending channel and retest and rebounded from the broken area of the channel

AUDUSD has broken the Descending channel and retest and rebounded from the broken area of the channel.

There were varying accounts of the number of people killed, and the United States government refused to corroborate any of the statistics. The United States of America keeps the security at all of its bases under check but refuses, without fail, to divulge many specifics. Reporters who have traveled around Syria have regularly witnessed a variety of security measures. These measures include everything from simple barriers and fences to more advanced radars and other sensors.

US Iran tension

When asked about reports that one of the radars at the base was not functioning properly, Ryder stated that there was not a complete lack of radar capabilities, saying, “There was a complete sight picture in terms of radar.” But, Iranian drones constitute an extremely dangerous risk in Syria. Tehran is producing drones of an ever-increasingly high level of technical sophistication, and the country now possesses an arsenal that spans the spectrum from low-powered, short-range systems “to high-powered, long-range attack platforms.” Moreover, Iran has supplied Russia with drones for use in the latter’s continuing conflict in Ukraine.

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